And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.
And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?
And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.
And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.
And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations. ~Revelation 13:2-7
Alex Jones is claiming that "Trans-Anarchy" in Ukraine is a valid Casus Belli-cause for war-and that not only should Russia invade Ukraine, but that Ukrainians should welcome their new Neo-Soviet overlords lest George Soros "Cut off their sons' balls" that's his words, exactly.
Does this motherfucker know any Eastern European people, or has he ever been to one of those countries? I'm just sayin' I've not been to Ukraine, but I've met Ukrainian people and they ain't exactly the most LGBT-friendly people around. But LGBT people have rights, even if they face challenges.
I've been to Latvia, and I don't know that I'd want to be an LGBT person there...despite the fact that LGBT rights are respected according to EU laws. Of course, a key difference between those countries and Russia is that the State is not actively disparaging LGBT people...which I suspect is the root of the problem for people like Alex Jones.
But seriously if these fucking people view LGBT rights as a cause for war, it's a wonder that they're not at war with half the world right now including their own country. Although, they seem to want exactly that in particular...and don't think it won't come to that eventually.
The situation in Ukraine reads to me as being aflame with attempted provocations, bullshit justifications, and outright lies on the part of the Russians. Some of which absolutely aren't that far from Alex Jones-level crazy.
And the key thing to remember here, is that it's all bullshit. They're going to do what they're going to do, and short of preemptive offensive action, there's not much we can do except be ready when the attacks come.
And the Russians are already shelling certain areas of their border with Ukraine. That, traditionally, is a major precursor to offensive, per Russian/Soviet military doctrines.
Like, literally that's how it works every single time. These people aren't exactly flexible on this, and the thing is, it generally works. So they...and anybody who follows their tactical doctrine...are going to keep doing it.
If I had to guess, I'd say the Ukrainians are probably benefitting from NATO and US drone feeds and ISR capabilities already, and we've put a lot of work into boosting their I.T. capabilities and providing things like anti-tank missiles, coast guard boats, drones, fire-finder radar and Stinger missiles over the last decade...not to mention, training to use all this shit...and the Ukrainian ground forces are experienced and tough, given that they've been dealing with this shit since 2014.
So if Ivan goes in, he's going to have a bad day.
And it's going to be a real bad day for the tankers and other armor crews, you can count on that.
The Ukrainians are ready, I think. As long as we've got their back, I think they'll hang on. It'll probably be bloody as hell, do not doubt this or shy form it.
War sucks, period. The Ukrainians already know this, they've been dealing with it for going on eight years. But that's not what worries me here.
The chances that NATO, and thus the US, will get sucked into this conflict very early on...and have to retaliate at least on the level of air and naval strikes against the Russians...are extremely high.
I put the odds at better than average that the Russians will fire on a NATO warship...particularly one they determine to be providing support to Ukrainian forces ashore (most likely an ELINT/SIGINT mission) and the likelihood of NATO/US casualties as being extremely high, and right there's your act of war.
They'll shoot for breaking Republican willpower right away.
Failing that, They'll try and diplomatically fast-talk their way out of it, Oops, sorry Comrades, or some shit. At the least they'll hope they can delay a direct air or ground response until they can achieve whatever their tactical objectives are on the ground.
And that may, or may not, work...and if it does, it may not work all that well. And if it doesn't, the results could be catastrophic, given the Russian *Cough* Wagner Group *Cough* track record in Syria, I suspect even a small US force could seriously fuck their shit up, which was exactly what happened in the battle of Khasham in Syria when Syrian government troops, backed by Russian mercenaries, attacked US Special Forces.
But, a thing we haven't had before in a major conflict is a quarter of the country cheering for the enemy.
And that, like it or not, is where we are now.
And I consider it a possibility that the Russians could gin up some level of far-right insurgency Stateside...it doesn't matter if said insurgents get obliterated in five minutes or less, the fact that it happened at all will effectively cut Army National Guard troops and Air National Guard aircraft and personnel from any response to events in Europe, and likely reduce any commitment or deployment of active duty forces as well.
And don't think, if things go well for them, that the Russians will stop with Ukraine. I have a feeling Belarus (simply a matter of "altering the deal" Darth Vader style) Moldova (for the purpose of "liberating" Transnistria) Poland and the Baltics might all end up on the menu, especially if the US is distracted or divided...which is exactly why the Russians will try to do this.
So, small, tough forces that could kick somebody's ass into the next time zone may well be the rule...and it's a good thing we have that, and that our standard doctrines were built around Armored Cavalry Regiments (Brigades, actually, in organizational terms) facing down Soviet Guards Armies.
But such will likely be a matter of necessity this time.
Worse, don't think for a second that Red States and Republicans won't be the first and the loudest howling for protection nor that the insurgents won't oblige them by hitting, say a bus stop in Austin or a grocery store in Greenville...nor that said efforts on both sides will be in complete bad faith, coordinated and on purpose, purely to try and tie up the US response to Russian aggression.
Oh, sure, if they get caught there would be hell to pay, but they'll make sure it's their lower- and mid-level people who pay it. And DOJ will let them get away with that shit.
And given the American "Conservative" addiction to fear...don't think the Russians won't threaten to go nuclear if things go against them...especially if NATO and US forces have been drawn into the conflict.
In the face of the Russian threat, Republicans will fold faster than French conservatives did on the battlefield before Hitler's legions...and leave the rest of us to fight this out. Worse, the Republicans will do this with the exact same hope that they might become a Vichy government after they lose.
In the face of Apocalypse, the Republicans...once the party of Ronald Reagan who famously told Gorbachev to "Tear Down This Wall!" and supported peace through strength...will proclaim Vladimir Putin to be Christ on Earth and demand from our own country peace through cowardice.
And the Russians will commit atrocities just to deluge Europe and the USA under a flood of Ukrainian refugees, and then inflame "Conservative" bigotry against the same...just to add fuel to the fires.
History tells us we cannot go down that road, not if we want to remain free.
Be prepared, if this blows all the way up, yo, we're likely in for a rough ride.
Two days past eighteen
He was waiting for the bus in his army green
Sat down in a booth in a cafe there
Gave his order to a girl with a bow in her hair
He's a little shy so she give him a smile
So he said would you mind sittin' down for a while
And talking to me, I'm feeling a little low
She said I'm off in an hour and I know where we can go
So they went down and they sat on the pier
He said I bet you got a boyfriend but I don't care
I got no one to send a letter to
Would you mind if I sent one back here to you
I cried
Never gonna hold the hand of another guy
Too young for him they told her
Waitin' for the love of a travelin' soldier
Our love will never end
Waitin' for the soldier to come back again
Never more to be alone when the letter says
A soldier's coming home
~The Chicks, Travelin' Soldier.
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