They Did Not Think This Through, Did They? (Anarchy In Ukraine I.)

Two days past eighteen
He was waiting for the bus in his army green
Sat down in a booth in a cafe there
Gave his order to a girl with a bow in her hair
He's a little shy so she give him a smile
So he said would you mind sittin' down for a while
And talking to me, I'm feeling a little low
She said I'm off in an hour and I know where we can go
So they went down and they sat on the pier
He said I bet you got a boyfriend but I don't care
I got no one to send a letter to
Would you mind if I sent one back here to you

I cried
Never gonna hold the hand of another guy
Too young for him they told her
Waitin' for the love of a travelin' soldier
Our love will never end
Waitin' for the soldier to come back again
Never more to be alone when the letter says
A soldier's coming home

~The Chicks, Travelin' Soldier.

Last night, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Thus far, things do not seem to be going all that well.

I think the Russians, and their backers, boosters and hangers-on in the global authoritarian movement thought it was going to be some Blitzkrieg type of shit, 

And it's just not working out that way. US-supplied FGM-148 Javelin missiles are making life short for a lot of Russian armored vehicle crews, the Russian Army has suffered several defeats and the Ukrainians have even managed to retake a couple of cities that the Russians captured. 

About the only things that the Russians have going for them is air superiority and missile strikes, but the Ukrainians have better morale, and believe in their cause, and against the odds, they're hanging on.

As long as they keep fighting and get support and the flow of supplies and weapons and shit keep on coming, I can tell you, based on those variables, how this is probably gonna end.

And if the Russians try to interdict that flow of equipment, then NATO and US forces enter the chat, and that is going to end very badly for the Russians. The absolute first thing we'll do is take away their air superiority, and then they lose on the ground, most likely.

We're going to get dragged into this sooner or later no matter what. Might as well get it over with.

I'm just stating an obvious fact here.

Sanctions and all that are helpful, but if they were supposed to deter this shit they should have been enacted months ago...if not years ago. That said, the sanctions implemented are...well, they're a hell of a lot more comprehensive then I had expected. 

If the Ukrainians can hang on, that will make a difference.

But they seem to be doing Okay so far.

There's even been a lot of protests against the war in Russia itself, and damn if that ain't unusual. More to the point, the fact that most people in Russia don't want this war and so many people are taking the risks associated with protesting, that matters.

I don't think a whole lot of Russians are down with the idea that they're going to have to sacrifice, or that they or their family members or friends might die...for Vladimir Putin's cockamamie political theories and KGB-style paranoid bullshit.

And honestly, I think Vlad made a mistake. At first blush I thought it was simply setting himself up in a "Win Or Die" scenario like Gaddafi did in Libya during the revolution there, but it's actually worse than that.

He's created a situation where it's not just "Win Or Die" but "Win Or Die, And Then Hope The West Gets Bored And Stops Isolating Russia."

A plan with that many moving parts that's dependent on the good graces of that many other people isn't a plan.

And between the oligarchs being made to feel the pain, the oligarchs kids being sent home and their educational opportunities canceled, and the common people being affected...well, this could end very badly for Putin, for Russia in general, and for Russia's financial prospects in particular.

Now, let me tell you why he doesn't see that.

It's because of these fucking people.

The vapid right-wing airheads who swoon over alleged "Christian values" that Putin has never demonstrated.

And he knows it. But he sees them kowtow to his power anyway, because they like his persecution of LGBT people or whatever.

And the funny part is, the vast majority of these morons don't consider Orthodoxy (Russian or otherwise) to be Christian anymore than they consider Catholicism to be part of Christianity.

And I've always found it interesting how these American right-wingers, the vast majority of them alleged Evangelical Christians, ignore the fact that Putin was KGB and the KGB persecuted religion, including Christianity. Nor only that, but Putin and his government actively persecute Evangelical, Fundamentalist and Pentecostal Christians in Russia even now.

It's the people like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson and the fucking idiots ranting about "Transgender Anarchy In Ukraine" and other nonsensical bullshit like that. 

While Russia does shit like crank out weird synthetic drugs and is all but openly run by criminals.

But these fucking right-wing bobbleheads ignore that because Putin's Drunken Style historical rants get them the same "Fix" they can't get as much from Trump anymore because he's not on social media.

And the reason these fearful little bobblehead ninnies enable Putin is because they see "Anarchy" sexual or otherwise, everywhere. Somehow, awhile back they convinced themselves that Ukraine was symbolic of this, and they want Vladimir Putin to be the "Strong Leader" and symbolically crush the thing that they've made into a symbol of their own shitty little fears. It never occurs to these motherfuckers that in their desire for "Law and Order" they have enabled somebody who has smashed the entire concept, but on the scale of whole nations.

It is the "Conservatives" who have created "Anarchy in the Ukraine."

They create the things they are afraid of, and then try to sell the rest of us on perpetually escalating uses of force to solve the problem that they themselves made.

It's interesting how id never occurs to them to not be afraid. And Putin sees these fearful, privileged, shitty little idiots and thinks, well hey, here's a group of people ripe for exploitation!

Not just that, but due to his Communist background and KGB training, Putin is already predisposed to be against privileged American/Western conservative white people.

In the end though, what's worse, is that these fucking people would be fine with being colonized, exploited, etc. because, to be honest, at this point these assholes would vote for Vladimir Putin if they could.

Even though he hates them. In fact, that's the point. 

Cruelty and Fear.

Note to Christians and "Conservatives" Vladimir Putin does not give a fuck about you, and would kill you too, if he had the chance.

Fear kills. 

Yet it does not occur to the Ukrainians to react to this Russian invasion with anything but damned near superhuman courage.

And that is a truth for which we in the rest of the world may yet have reason to be thankful for.

But in this war that we are not fighting in yet (though I think we will be, soon) Republicans have already surrendered.

So, yeah. Reagan would weep.

Republicans, what in the actual chicken-fried fuck is wrong with you?

If an 80 year old Ukrainian can stand up and volunteer to go fight Russians, why the fuck can't you even be bothered to get a shot or put on a mask or accept people different from you?

You know, the interesting thing here, is that if Vladimir Putin wanted to conquer somebody he might've just invaded the wrong country.

'Cause if Putin (likely) loses this war and/or starts a bigger one that Russia loses, and somehow avoids being put up against the wall and somehow avoids international prosecution...if dude made it to America, there'd be motherfuckers who'd try to change the Constitution so they could vote for his ass at some level.

And that is not a joke.

There's something wrong with these people.